Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.700490 9.100341 10.642975 12.463671 14.548112 16.854119 19.592273
2025-02-02 5.843198 7.707222 9.955419 12.843998 16.431818 20.714804 26.184850
2025-02-09 4.745243 6.859951 9.607031 13.385674 18.388909 24.720768 33.263476
2025-02-16 3.798531 5.963300 8.966965 13.351145 19.481822 27.630052 39.132756
2025-02-23 2.999299 5.088087 8.169247 12.916734 19.888572 29.564599 43.774318
2025-03-02 2.374248 4.337234 7.405039 12.375646 20.009331 31.025613 47.783266
2025-03-09 2.005474 3.915478 7.057697 12.377872 20.870322 33.540744 53.396080
2025-03-16 1.718506 3.573949 6.777300 12.426862 21.770049 36.136738 59.259454
2025-03-23 1.471670 3.255359 6.481913 12.398447 22.515570 38.517237 64.916832
2025-03-30 1.203362 2.842529 5.957063 11.904373 22.429638 39.561973 68.542973
2025-04-06 1.042640 2.612429 5.728314 11.893641 23.135181 41.891352 74.304514
2025-04-13 0.899173 2.389765 5.479248 11.808973 23.688964 43.987106 79.788316
2025-04-20 0.844303 2.358510 5.612674 12.474979 25.664128 48.639966 89.839902
2025-04-27 0.779602 2.292354 5.665838 12.990432 27.407584 53.012336 99.685596
2025-05-04 0.727351 2.246154 5.753927 13.581722 29.335290 57.818264 110.528460
2025-05-11 0.636047 2.080657 5.556057 13.560704 30.084694 60.574037 117.969503
2025-05-18 0.531359 1.854205 5.184143 13.124654 29.975686 61.758674 122.697574
2025-05-25 0.437111 1.632288 4.785581 12.577309 29.583404 62.376625 126.419478
2025-06-01 0.384878 1.521828 4.641467 12.579975 30.309255 65.117698 134.114643
2025-06-08 0.341452 1.427885 4.524432 12.629786 31.132563 68.084127 142.363485
2025-06-15 0.300274 1.330250 4.381944 12.601010 31.780034 70.738518 150.149650
2025-06-22 0.247840 1.177401 4.062469 12.099947 31.345808 71.223778 153.834840
2025-06-29 0.218629 1.100700 3.944813 12.089066 32.001083 73.921202 161.891183